Thursday, July 29, 2010

National Adversity Index - from Moody's published on MSNBC

Interactive: Adversity Index


The Adversity Index measures employment, industrial production, housing starts and home prices for 381 U.S. metro areas and all 50 states
 
The Adversity Index, from msnbc.com and Moody's Economy.com, measures the economic health of 381 metro areas and all 50 states. Each area is in recession, at risk, recovering or expanding. On this map you can explore changes in the four components of the index: employment, housing starts, housing prices and industrial production, each shown as a percentage change from a year earlier. (The change in housing prices will be updated at the end of the quarter.) Roll over a state to see its numbers. Click on a state to see details for its metro areas. Slide left or right to see data for different months. Click play to see all the months. Use the forward and back buttons to step a month at a time.
 
You definitely have to click the link and draw your own conclusions:
 
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29976394/ns/business-stocks_and_economy
 
 
 

Arizona immigration law 2010: As SB1070 takes effect, Mexicans say 'Adios, Arizona'

Article in the Christian Science Monitor this morning discusses the impact of a new immigration law in Arizona that takes effect today.   The Mexico government is beefing up relief shelters in Sonora to help Mexican citizens that are being either deported back or voluntarily returning to Mexico.   The article implies that the number of Mexican citizens that are voluntarily returning to Mexico is higher than what has been seen in the past.   Apparently this law has more teeth.   It appears that the strategy that many of these illegal aliens are taking is to return to Mexico and return to another US state that has weaker immigration policies.

While I appreciate that our country has been built off the backs of immigrants, states in the southwest certainly can't afford the public cost of supporting these people.   I encourage regulation to keep this influx in check and it seems that whatever Arizona is doing should be looked at as a national policy.

the full article here:

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/2010/0729/Arizona-immigration-law-2010-As-SB1070-takes-effect-Mexicans-say-Adios-Arizona

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Electric Car Stocks making move in 2010

Is there a viable business model for electric cars?  Yet?   I sometimes wish the U.S. would really consider the Dannish 'tax and subsidize' model.   Could it work here?    Based on Tesla stock performance to date, it seems doubtful that EV can make it on it's own. 




BALTIMORE (Stockpickr) -- Despite its parent company's financial failings in the last decade, Chevrolet's press conference yesterday announcing pricing on its new Volt electric vehicle reminded America that the auto industry still stands to impress with innovation. The Volt is arguably the most anticipated EV in history, offering to bring zero-emissions and electric efficiency to the mass market.

In yesterday's announcement, Chevrolet announced that the Volt would be base priced at $41,000, before a $7,500 tax credit that brings the cost down to $33,500. The company also plans on making a lease option available for $350 per month. But while GM's offering is the most tangible mass-market electric car out there right now, there's more to the EV market than just the Volt. Here's a look at a handful of electric car stocks that could make moves in 2010.



Rest of article here.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10819622/1/electric-car-stocks-making-moves-in-2010.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEFI

Teams and Leaders

I usually write in this blog things that interest me in the news, my industry, or other random thoughts.   Today is a post about an important observation about my last job. 

It has been a week or so since ITP has shut it's doors.   I have been doing my part to help our team find a home and continue the great work they have done so far.   It is such a nice thing to see in the business world a situation where a team is created that does truly remarkable things.   Even if things don't work out exactly as planned.  

Thousands of books have been written about teams and leadership.   I am sure I will not cover any new ground.   But it is sometimes good to reflect on a real life situation you have experienced and relate it what you have read.

Great teams can do anything.   The ITP team was excellent at developing and operating financial software.  The team has good leadership, strong technical standards, a passion for excellence, and the commitment to deliver.   The team has the mix of skills, personalities, strengths, and weaknesses that compliment and inspire.  Its members have a respect for each other.   It members often fight with each other over things they are passionate about.   All in the pursuit of excellence.  But it never becomes personal.   At the end of the day, it is a lunch, a beer, or a hallway conversation, that brings the spirit of the team back together, with no animosity, and often times generates good feelings that the pain they may have felt has made them stronger, closer, and more sure of themselves and their teammates that they can truly do wonderful things.

Great  teams have a way of looking at the strengths and weaknesses of its members.   Truly appreciating what each brings to the team, and often times overlooking and neutralizing the inevitable weaknesses.   This I find to be most incredible.     It seems to me that this characteristic is so much motivated by self and team preservation.   The recognition of of the universal truth of human nature.. there is good and bad in all of us and that great teams, made up of average people,  are willing to adapt in ways that take the best in spite of the worst.  

How many teams have we seen that broke apart?   Mostly because of ego and selfish reasons, I would suspect.

Great teams go beyond business obviously.   Baseball, marriages, music groups, religious affiliations.   What are the essential ingredients?   A few that come to mind.

  • Respect for each other  
  • Respect for yourself
  • Commitment to the cause
  • Each member plays a necessary role, and does it with competence
  • Leaders and members, with the roles understood, accepted, and sometimes challenged.
  • Diversity in thought, talent, and temperament

It sounds like a formula, and that anyone can put together a great team.   Maybe great leaders are defined as those that can inspire and build great teams.   Maybe they have the subtle skill to recognize talent and the necessary mix of it to succeed; the ability to manage diverse personalities; can inspire; not afraid to reprimand, and provide the courage to lead through the inevitable challenges that lie ahead.   They have the vision of why the team exists and what truly is their mission.   And can articulate it day in and day out.

Great teams are such a special and elusive thing.    And often times, you may not even know you are part of one.

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Letting go.

From a correspondence with a friend about not trying to 'force life.'

"I think of golf as an example. Don’t worry about the score, only the next shot. Don’t fear missing the shot and feel grateful, but not surprised, for one well executed. You will never hit them all perfect…it is the nature of the game. Your opponent is only the course, never the person you are playing. Make sure you are never the opponent. Trust your abilities and preparation. Draw from your past successes as an indicator you can do it. Trust the numbers, and the feeling in your gut. Feel the wind, feel the grass, feel the game. Nothing else really matters. Let the outcome be what it is."

Q2 Earnings Season - Finally Optimism?

A few snippets that I thought interesting in the article.   A view of current sentiment.

Alcoa, the biggest U.S. aluminum producer and the first company in the Dow Jones Industrial Average to report second- quarter results, rose as much as 4.3 percent as sales and profit exceeded analysts’ estimates and the company forecast stronger global demand.    [Does this indicate that US aluminum suppliers are competitive with overseas low cost producers?   How did they accomplish this with our higher labor costs?  I wonder where their biggest customers are?]

All 10 industry groups in the S&P 500 advanced, led by commodity producers and financial firms. [commodity producers... inflation or competitive producer indicator?   Are the financial firms finally getting their houses in order after the debacle?  Where are the profits coming from?]

U.S. stock futures rallied before the start of trading as Greece sold 1.63 billion euros ($2.1 billion) of 26-week Treasury bills at a rate below the 5 percent charged by the European Union for its bailout package, easing concern the nation faces punitive costs to borrow.

Profits for S&P 500 companies are projected to have increased 34 percent in the second quarter and by the same amount in 2010, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Intel Corp., the biggest maker of semiconductors, reports quarterly results after the close of U.S. exchanges today. It’s among 23 companies in the index to announce results this week. [34% average.   that is a huge number]


http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-13/u-s-stocks-rise-as-s-p-500-extends-winning-streak-alcoa-gains.html

GSO Capital Partners, the credit hedge fund arm of the Blackstone Group, has raised more than $3 billion for a new fund that will provide financing to distressed middle-market companies.

Is this an economic indicator?   Does this signify a thinking that things will get better?   Financing/ownership of distressed, but well run companies, at favorable multiples, will lead to profits when economic activity finally turns around?

http://www.finalternatives.com/node/13148

Friday, July 9, 2010

Google and China

As reported in the Washington Post.....

You had the impression not too long ago that Google actually had the backbone to stand up to China's goverment.   Saying no to censorship and saying no to being hacked.  

As Google's licence sets to expire, they have now acknowledged that the market is more important than principles.   I admired Google in January.   Not quite so sure now.   

I suspect that there is more to the story.  Washington/Beijing relations?   Quid Pro Quo?   Maybe this decision was out of Eric Schmidt's hands.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/09/AR2010070902137.html

European exchanges fight rearguard action against consolidated tape

From Finextra this morning.    I had to read this a few times to understand this.   I suspect I still don't.  As in the US, there is becoming a proliferation of execution venues across Europe.    Market data is the blood of the beast and without it, investors are unable to feed their machines with the information necessary to find the the best places to trade.

What does the consolidated tape provide?   Why would the regulated exchanges be opposed to it?  Why are some exchanges forfeiting one of their largest revenue sources; market data?

The  conclusions I draw are:

  1. As the name suggests, a consolidated tape is the requirement that all exchanges and execution venues report to a central authority/database the critical information about filled orders that occurred on their venues.   Is other information such as depth of book, bid/ask, size also part of the requirement?
  2. A consolidated tape may show investors and traders that best execution quality may not really exist on the regulated exchanges.   The machines will begin to see that the dark pools are really the places to trade and slowly market share will start migrating to the newer venues.  Notice NYSE volumes over the last few years.    
  3. Is the 'give away' of market data the exchanges attempt to 'buy' business.   Potentially equated  to a rebate.   If you want access to the whole universe of liquidity, you will have to pay for the market data that drives your machines.   If you trade strictly on the exchange, you may be able to do it cheaper because of the subsidized market data.    
  4. I suspect some investors will look at their volumes, opportunity costs, commissions, and other trade cost parameters and see that best execution may cost more than just playing in the familiar exchange playground.   Or maybe not.  

08 July, 2010 - 10:23








European exchanges fight rearguard action against consolidated tape




European stock exchanges are promising to eliminate fees on 15-minute delayed data by the end of the year as they step up their campaign against the introduction of a mandatory consolidated tape for EU market data.




Representing the views of regulated market venues, the Federation of European Stock Exchanges says the introduction of a consolidated tape would neither improve transparency nor lower costs, but would instead "pose serious threats to the competitive framework that MiFID has enabled".




The exchanges are wary of giving up control of a valuable source of revenue at a time when their income and market share is being squeezed by a host of new competitors.




In its statement, the FESE promised to eliminate fees on 15-minute delayed data, support for trade identifier and to make post-trade data available separately from pre‐trade information "at a reasonable cost".




The exchange lobby group also warned of the "unpredictable consequences" for the structure of European markets under a consolidated tape. "Gaming would likely become a fixture of the market and, instead of venues competing on the basis of their execution quality; they would compete in terms of their gaming," says the FESE. "This is not a good outcome for Europe."







Thursday, July 8, 2010

The Rich are losing their homes

LOS ALTOS, Calif. — No need for tears, but the well-off are losing their master suites and saying goodbye to their wine cellars.



Peter DaSilva for The New York Times

A home in foreclosure in Los Altos, Calif., a city where the median home price is $1.5 million.

The housing bust that began among the working class in remote subdivisions and quickly progressed to the suburban middle class is striking the upper class in privileged enclaves like this one in Silicon Valley.
Whether it is their residence, a second home or a house bought as an investment, the rich have stopped paying the mortgage at a rate that greatly exceeds the rest of the population.

For complete article, follow this link. 

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/09/business/economy/09rich.html?_r=1

Unified Communications in Financial Technology (IM?)

The call for unified communications is too loud to ignore


28 May 2010

By Thierry Charvet,

marketing director,

Orange Business Services - Trading Solutions

Unified communications sounds complicated. But in principle it is very simple and hinges on two factors. Firstly, a trader must be able to switch seamlessly from one communication channel to another. Imagine an employee is on the phone and decides to speak to a colleague face to face. It involves a simple process of just clicking an icon then the conversation immediately shifts to a screen on a workstation. Secondly, a truly unified communications system will automatically direct the caller to the most appropriate channel. Log off an office network and a call goes through to a mobile - without the need to set up manual call forwarding.

This flexible and intuitive approach to unified communications makes it highly suitable for trading rooms. In addition, it reflects the industry’s shift from a focus on transactional business, which has always been supported by traditional voice and turret based communications. But today, commoditised transactions are largely automated as the focus has switched to instruments. Traders focusing on complex instruments such as derivatives are turning to communication channels such as instant messaging (IM), which are familiar in the mass market, but less so on the trading floor.

From chat rooms to trading rooms

So why are traders turning to a communication channel that originated alongside chat rooms? In fact the reason that IM functions so well is due to it being a great tool for communication at the start of the trading cycle. If a trader wants to find out the price of different liquidity pools from a dozen or more contacts, rather than call each one individually, IM can be used to check who is available while also sending a group message exploring the depth of the market. Equipped with a short list of perhaps three prices, the trader then moves to a traditional voice turret to speak to the shortlist of contacts in person. IM is perfect because it supports communication in real-time or near real-time, rather than email where people tend to respond every hour or so or longer.

In fact IM is the perfect starting point for a discussion around unified communications on the trading floor because it highlights many of the opportunities for traders, as well as offering a strong reminder of issues, including compliance, associated with a new communications channel.

On the one hand, IM offers flexible fast communication. On the other, it also indicates whether someone is available or even the best way of contacting them at any point in time. A truly unified communications solution also enables the end-user to switch seamlessly from one channel to another so that a trader can escalate a conversation from text, to voice or even a video conference. At the same time, IM also supports compliance. This is not just because most systems now record written conversations, but because institutions can better comply with the need to prove best execution under MiFID.

Unified communications is helping the financial services industry evolve beyond a focus on instruments towards a new approach that centres on communities. It helps to create networks and layers of communication that map to day-to-day trades.

A triple win

There are three areas where unified communications has the potential to increase business performance. Firstly there is the opportunity to improve overall productivity, especially if unified communications is integrated with an existing CRM system. In this scenario, a window pops up with the client’s profile, recent spending pattern and risk adversity. Sometimes the challenge is that there is just too much data, but once a system that automatically pulls up the client information needed is utilised, productivity increases enormously.

Unified communications also supports greater collaboration between traders and analysts. Take the example of a morning briefing where an analyst describes pricing trends and advises the sales team on the day’s strategy. With unified communications, the briefing is recorded and automatically sent to those who cannot attend the call. There is no need to send notes or the sound file manually. Time savings as well as better sharing of information can make an enormous difference to sales performances – and the efficiency of analysts.

Then there is the eye-opening potential of unified communications to draw connected people into a real time conversation. Imagine if a trader could be automatically notified when a call that impacts their business comes to a sales colleague, which would enable themto intervene if necessary. That becomes possible with solutions that are on the market today. The transparency of communication that can now be achieved between front, middle and back offices holds immense potential for the trading business.

One of the main strengths of unified communications is that it provides a trader with a single identity that is recognised by their network, colleagues and counterparty organisations. It takes all those identities and passwords and combines them into a single entity – the trader themselves.

By replacing fragmented identities with one, employees on the move can use mobile devices or home landlines to participate in business while still complying with regulations that govern the recording of trading conversations. When a call is diverted away from the workplace, it is still recorded at the turret. Once again, it is a completely seamless and secure process.

Leading the drive to operational efficiency

The good news for the IT team is that a unified communications strategy fits perfectly with the overall trend towards growing use of session initiation protocols (Sip), which have the potential to support every communication channel from voice to video to email. By implementing a solution that supports computer telephony integration, there is an enormous opportunity to simplify infrastructures and drive down costs.



A more simple approach also means that it becomes easier to enforce security protocols and policies, whilst at the same time opening up the door to further operational efficiencies based on distributed networks, server virtualisation and cloud computing.



Whichever way this trading solution is viewed - from the front to the back office, from the boardroom to the IT team - unified communications answers many of the critical challenges that face trading institutions in the early twenty-first century. It offers more transparency, clearer messages, greater accountability and lower costs. Put simply, it is an essential platform for success in the coming decade and beyond.

Smartstream business expansion

SmartStream’s North American growth continues with Toronto office opening and New York expansion


8 July 2010

SmartStream Technologies, the financial Transaction Lifecycle Management specialist, today announced further investment across North America as it continues to win new clients in the region.



SmartStream’s North American operations have experienced significant growth over recent years with leading US investment banks, hedge funds and asset managers becoming clients. This latest investment reflects both the company’s focus on serving the newly expanded customer base and recognition of the region’s continued growth prospects. A new Canadian operation, run out of Toronto, will be headed by Kurt Eldridge who until recently was sales manager for SmartStream’s operations in Australia and New Zealand. In that role, Kurt helped to expand SmartStream’s business in the region working with some of its largest institutions to win new business and manage the successful deployment of the company’s TLM solutions.



SmartStream’s existing New York office is also expanding with the appointment of Bill Blythe, who is moving from the company’s UK operations to oversee sales for North America. Bill brings a wealth of experience having been instrumental in SmartStream’s continued success in the UK, signing major clients to a variety of solutions including TLM Cash Management, TLM Reconciliations and TLM Corporate Actions.



Commenting on the organisational changes and investment, Philippe Chambadal CEO, SmartStream, said: “These latest changes reflect the significant amount of new business SmartStream has transacted in North America over the last 18 months. Both Kurt and Bill are highly successful sales professionals who have achieved significant results, signing some of the biggest clients to a range of TLM solutions. They have strong track records and a proven ability to partner with some of the largest and most exacting clients. With Kurt and Bill now in place I’m convinced our North American business will continue its success and deliver even greater growth over the coming years.”

European Dark Pool growth


Interesting article in Finextra.   Market dark pools are continuing to grow in Europe with Turquoise, Nomura, Chi (whatever) and SmartPool (NYSE/Euronext).   The author indicates that keys to getting liquidity includes distribution, similar to the old 'bricks and mortar' concept of a decade ago, transparency, and good marketing.   See previous post about the challenges this puts on the buy side trying to find the best price for large block trades.   Technology vendors, brokers, and other EMS providers will be filling this quite quickly.   Makes you wonder if the roliferations of European MTF's and US dark pools is a broker 'pushed' concept to strengthen revenes by providing not only the venues themselves, but the technology to help institutional investors navigate the changing, and often confusing landscape?


Wednesday, July 7, 2010

I have always wanted to say this

Dow Roars Past 10000 Again

Ok, another article in wsj.com this afternoon reporting on the big move in the market today.  Great, we are all happy that there was a 3% jump in the Dow.   But what gets me is the lame analysis we get everyday about why the market moved.   Today's was a good example:

Stocks rallied, reversing a three-week slide and pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average through the 10000 mark as investors grew hopeful for the approaching earnings season.

Are these the same investors that make up 'black box robots' that account for the 40% of the market's volume.  These little software roboots sole job is to arbitrage the 70 dark and lit pools that exist in this country for the sole purpose of ripping off  private investors that are hopelessly trying to save for their retirement and kid's education.    

Can someone please tell me that today's market structure is really better than the single/dual marketplace we had a decade ago?  That the brightest math and science minds that our top universities develop rush to New York or Chicago the day after graduation to get jobs building 'tradebots.'    Ok, I will get on the bandwagon... this country doesn't produce anything meaningful anymore.   And to state the obvious, maybe if more of these 'bright minds' worked on things that were meaningful, we would know why the market went up each day.

So really....why did the market go up today? 

Infrastructure Security - Perfect Citizen

In a recent article in the Wall Street Journal, it was reported that the NSA started a program called 'Perfect Citizen' and has put software sensors in the computer systems that drive this countries key infrastructures. I guess that seems like a good idea, if we know for certian that they work and the people looking at the data know what they are looking for. Are the claims of 'Big Brother' just noise to reinforce some peoples naive view that everyone will just 'play along nice.'

I would suspect that private industry is clever and motivated enough to keep their technology secure, but sometimes I wonder. Not long ago I thought Wall Street investment banks were clever enough to keep from going out of business, and as documented in 'The Big Short' by Micheal Lewis, we know what happened. Does drive for short term profit really cause senior managers to overlook the fundementals? Is security one of those fundementals?

Government run facilities and 'utilities' to me seem another story completely. Are the people that run these organizations really equiped with the people, technology, and motivation to keep systems secure from outside threats? If there is at least a bit of concern, what's wrong with another set of eyes from the NSA keeping tabs on malicious threats. We all know they are there and that the next war will be fought with silicon rather than steel.