9/11 Remembered

I have shared with some of you my experiences of 9/11.   For those who I haven't, I will do here.

September 11, 2001 was a very clear day, similar to today in the northeast.   There wasn't a cloud in the sky.   I worked for Instinet Corporation at the time.  We had a correspondent clearing division that was located on the 15th floor of the North Tower.   I had recently moved to that division a few months earlier.

As my habit, I usually got to the office just before 8:00AM.   That day was no exception.   I was just talking on the phone discussing getting tickets to a West Point football game in October.   Just as I hung up the phone, a very loud sound resonated through the floor and the building began to sway.   It seemed at the time the floor moved 4 or 5 feet in one direction, and then back to it's normal location.   I looked out the window of my office and saw debris falling from the sky.   I had no idea what happened, but memories of the bombing in 1993 came to mind.   Seemed strange to see the debris though.

The few of us in the office left their desks and congregated in a common area.   One woman said, stand in your doorways, you will be safe.   Now that was just plain stupid.

We made our way to the stairwells and started the orderly exit out of the building.   At about the 10th floor, the flow stopped.   That was the first time I ever feared for my life; being stuck somewhere with the anticipation that something bad could truly happen that was outside of my control.   I found a door out of the stairwell that opened into the 10th floor.   I asked the security guard what he knew.   He said a small private plan crashed into the building.   That seemed to relieve me a bit.

I made my way back to the stairwell and miraculously the traffic began to move downward until we finally made it to the lobby.   I still remember passing a NY fireman who was making his way up the stairs with full gear, most probably never to come back down.

The lobby looked like a disaster scene.   The windows were blown out, water on the floors, and huge amounts of debris in the plaza.   We walked single file out of the lobby through the Vista hotel next door until we finally made it to West Street.   I met up with my friend Lou across the street and we contemplated what to do.    As we talked, I heard the roar of a jet and looked up at the South Tower that was just across the street.   My first thought was that an Air Force fighter jet was flying over to inspect the damage.   But I could see the outline of a grey commercial jet, engines roaring, fly directly into the building overhead.   Our first instinct was to run.   And we ran as fast as we could toward the Hudson River until we though we were safe from the falling debris.

The rest of the day was pretty much a daze.   Lou and I walked around downtown trying to figure out what happened, and what was happening.   Every few minutes we looked up at the Trade Center towers wondering how they would ever fix the gigantic holes that were now in the building.   Little did we know that job would never have to be done.

We made our way to the Staten Island Ferry just as the first building came down, and could finally see daylight again when we were half way across the harbor.   We found refuge in a Staten Island hospital office due the generosity of a man we met on the boat who worked there.   Lou called a friend of his who lived in SI who offered us a place for the night.   The next day, we both finally made it home.

Anyone who was in New York during that time can remember the fear and uncertainty that engulfed the city.   Anthrax scares and fear of more bombings made us all very uneasy.   Overtime, the fear subsided and we got back to our business.   But for that one day in September, life stood still.

July Trade Deficit and Gross Domestic Product

As many of you know, the July Trade Deficit numbers were published by the US Census bureau yesterday.   While many of these numbers were reported in the news,  I wanted highlight a few facts.

1. The total trade deficit for goods and services decreased by 14% from June to July
2. The total amount of the change was due to a 12% deficit decrease in goods.   Services remained unchanged.
3. Imports of goods and services each decreases in total by 2% each.   Exports of goods increased 3% while services remained unchanged

At an aggregate level, this indicates that the US imported less from other countries from the previous month while increasing the amount exported.   This is a good trend. 

As I started to look at the trade balance numbers, I wondered about how important our trade deficit is to our overall economic health.  Conventional wisdom would say that it is always better to be providing more goods to the rest of the world than you import.   I might argue that parity is probably the best thing. None the less, I think it is important to understand how big our trade deficit is compared to our overall Gross Domestic Product.

For those of you that don't know what GDP is (and I didn't really understand it either), it is defined as the  amount of goods and services produced within a country in a calendar year.   GNP is measured a few ways, but the most common way is based on the 'consumption model.'    Economist measure all the goods and services consumed by individuals and businesses, all residential and non residential fixed investments,  total goverment spending on both the federal, state, and city levels.   Subtracted from this number is the net trade deficit.   This is done to back out goods consumed in this country but produced elsewhere.

Our current GDP is about $14.5 trillion.   Some interesting components that make up this number:

Durable Goods.   This includes autos, household items, recreational items, etc.   GDP $ 1.07 Trillion or 7.5% of the total

Non Durable Goods.  Items such as food, clothing, gasoline, and other energy products.   GDP $2.3 Trillion or 15.8%

Household Consumption Services.   This includes non mortgage housing expenses, healthcare, financial services and insurance, transportation services.   GDP $6.6 Trillion or 45.5%.   Interesting to note that health care expenses represents 11% of GDP.

Non Profits.  Total consumption of households of Non for Profit organizations services.  GDP $265 Billion or 1.8%

Fixed Investments by Businesses.   Investments in factories, equipment, buildings, and transportation.   GDP $1,406  or 9.8%.

Residential Fixed Investments.   As the name implies, individual's investments in their homes.   GDP $358 Billion or 2.5%

National Defense.   $812 Billion or %5.6

Federal Government, Non Defense.   $393 Billion or 2.7%

State and Local Government.  $1,786 or 12.3%

And finally, the total amount of Net Imports backed out of our GNP is $563 Billion or approximately 3% of our GNP.   The implication I take from this is that our economy generates $14.5 Trillion of consumption/production each year, but of that only 3% of those goods and services we consume are coming from overseas.   Seems like a fairly paltry number given all the hype about our deficit and the anti 'Made in China' sentiment we are constantly hearing about.   Can this be right?

On-Line

Last night during dinner, my 15 year old son and I started talking about the on-line games that he plays.   As he described the on-line world that so captivates him and the others in his age group, I felt like a technology and social neophyte.   The world that is represented with net based games made me wonder just what the world is going to be like when kids of his generation reach adulthood and are the ones running the world.   During my trip to Indianapolis over Labor Day weekend, my friend Mark and I reminisced about how we spent out time as kids playing basketball, tennis, and music.   We spent our time with each other in the physical world.  But today, it seems like the majority of the social interaction between kids now takes place in a virtual world with people they have never met.   Hours and hours of time spent inside games that present mental challenges, adventure, fantasy, and other attributes that people of my generation probably have very little understanding of.

It is easy to say, as previous generations have, that kids 'now a days' just don't have the social skills to develop into productive human beings.   They are being tarnished by their pastimes.   I suspect this is not the case, but it does make me think what the world will be like in 30 years given how these young minds are being influenced by their recreational activities.  


The future will be an even more of an on-line world.   Buying goods and services over the internet like we do today is just the beginning and serves as a teaser of what is to come.   Finding any fact about any subject in a matter of seconds, like we can  today with Google, is an incredible technology achievement  and makes our world smaller and our people more educated.   Social networking like Facebook, Linkedin, and Match  has make it easier to keep tabs on people we know, and to meet people whose paths we would never have crossed.    Having access to any news when you want it, regardless of it's bias,  makes our world smaller, gives us a more global understanding,  and has the potential to make people more understanding of each other (ok, maybe that is a stretch).


The online world does have it's dark side.   It is sad to think that pornography is the largest revenue generator on the net.   Certainly combined with the fact that young people spend so much time on-line, will they be able to establish meaningful and loving relationships when their social and sexual needs are satisfied by the Net.   I can't imagine the impact of this.   We marvel at the achievements of Google, but as they continue to grow, more and more of our personal information is kept in the millions of computers operated by the company.   Our emails, phone calls, bank and investment records, and our personal preferences and interests represented by our on line searches.  What is the impact of this moving forward?


During diner last night, my son and I hypothesized about the next major conflict between countries.   He recognized that wars will be fought, not with guns and missiles, but with silicon.   Countries exploiting computer networks and software to attack power grids, financial systems, communications, and other public and private utilities to cause havoc, confusion, and hardship for the citizens of it's adversaries.   Will nuclear weapons even be necessary to resolve conflicts between nations?    This seems like an on-line computer game, doesn't it.

Darwin and Hummingbirds

Self interest seems to be the rule of the day.   And it probably has been  from the beginning of time.  Religious and spiritual disciplines preach tolerance and love for our neighbors.  That love for ourselves and the people around us is the way we should live our lives.   And it all sounds good and right to me.

And as I sit on my deck drinking my morning coffee, I watch the continuing drama with the hummingbirds.  I love watching the half bird, half bug animals hover around to the many feeders I placed on the deck.   First there was one, then two, and now three.   As a bird comes to the feeder, they cautiously look around to see if they can safely drink without being attacked by one of their colleagues.   If lucky, they get 5 seconds before another comes swooping in to attack and intimidate.   This Darwinian drama continues until the sun goes down.

Is tolerance and love for our fellow man only applicable if ones survival is not threatened?   The hummingbird needs to eat or die.   Do the herds of antelope in Africa or the schools of tuna in the Pacific work and live together peacefully because it is their way of surviving?   Do nations and races create ideologies that bond their societies together as a way of protecting themselves from other races, allowing them to survive?   Is a world of plenty for all the only way we can achieve peace and love?   I wonder... I have more than enough feeders for all the hummingbirds in Ridgewood.

Seems to me that self interest, honesty and directness is the only way to achieving understanding, and eventually for defining behaviors that are in the best interest for all.   People and animals quickly know the rules and adapt in ways that assure their survival.   If they don't adapt, they die.